Monday 31st October: Are newspapers teetering on the edge of another revenue cliff?

October 31, 2022

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A few years ago Clay Shirky posited that newspapers were going to be hit by a second revenue cliff as print circulations hit a certain psychological level. A second, equally valid argument from the same article was that reducing costs by cutting back on print becomes less viable as circulations shrink. That second point seems to be about to be tested:

"With all the mill closures and more potentially on the horizon, it is unclear when prices will settle. An industry source said: "The camel's back is creaking." For now, publishers have a few options to try to get above the rising waterline: they can reduce their paper grade, sacrificing thickness and texture. They can reduce their print volumes and pagination (the number of pages within a paper) - Reach, for example, has dropped each by about 5%."

As this Press Gazette articles makes clear, there are some crazy pressures on the price of newsprint in 2022. But one of the most obvious solutions - passing the cost of that increase onto consumers - will only hasten the circulation decline. And round the wheel goes, and we get ever close to that second revenue cliff...

An analysis of 23 million headlines from 47 media sources dating back to 2000 shows that media headlines have grown remarkably negative. Seems pretty obvious that this has been exacerbated by the need to be emotive to get attention in service of ad revenue. But I can't rule out that the last 22 years have just been horrible.

Over the course of the past few months Musk has humiliated himself over his acquisition of Twitter. Now that he has the job he never really wanted, however, he's overseen a big rise in hatred on the platform, fired the person responsible for Twitter's free speech stance, and demonstrated his own total media illiteracy. Strong start. It'd be funny if we weren't all going to be impacted by it.

In Greece, two unsolved journalist killings over the last 12 years as well as threats of violence and physical attacks against reporters have contributed to a climate of fear and self-censorship. Again, if the business of media is in support of public service journalism, we can't look away from this because it's uncomfortable.

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This week's podcast:

Our sixth episode looks at the world of podcasting, from how publishers are refocusing strategies on engaging superfans to the growing popularity of video podcasts. To discuss 2022’s biggest podcast trends we’re joined this week by Naomi Mellor, founder of The Skylark Collective.

There's no better feeling than being able to whip a stat or case study out to support your argument. And if you manage to do it in front of your boss, you might even get a pay rise or promotion. Well, our Media Moments 2022 report is coming out VERY SHORTLY - and it's packed full of those boss-impressing stats. Pre-register here, and don't forget to thank us when you get that promotion.